Hung parliament, shaky govt in 2018?

ISLAMABAD: New political phenomenon and realities that transpired, though at a micro level, in the result of NA-120 Lahore by-election are clear pointers and undercurrents of future electoral dynamics that may lead to a split mandate.

However a must prerequisite to achieve the desired hung parliament is that the new factors put in place by this by-poll persist in the upcoming general elections and produce similar performance nationwide or at least in several key federal and provincial constituencies.

The new elements, billed as spoilers, were brought in with a conscious effort to “manage” the grand national electoral exercise so that no major political party is able to get even a simple majority to land in a position to form federal government single-handed. An apparent wish may be that a hodgepodge of parliamentary parties emerge with none having a dominant say, giving birth to an unstable, shaky setup that will be effortlessly put under the thumb.

During General Ziaul Haq’s martial law, religious groups of different sects were encouraged to create a mark on the political landscape. These factions surfaced as ominous pressure groups instead of powerful political forces, which, however, at times made the life of democratic governments difficult. However, they always failed to exhibit any meaningful performance at the ballot box and were unable to secure more than a couple of seats. But they did fight pitched bloody battles for years on sectarian lines.

Now again, the religious factions representing different
sects have been put forward in the name of mainstreaming so that they shun the militant and extremist path they had been pursuing since long. It is anybody’s guess how far they could be weaned away from their past pursuits by bringing them in the political arena.

What surprised, if not shocked, many was the performance of the nominees of Tehreek Labbaik Ya Rasool Allah (followers of late Mumtaz Qadri) and Milli Muslim League or MML, political name of Jamaatud Dawa, Sheikh Azhar Hussain and Sheikh Yaqoob respectively. Sheikh Azhar stood third by bagging 7,130 votes while Mohammad Yaqoob Shaikh with 5,822 ballots secured the fourth position after the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) . It was indeed an impressive showing from the point of view of the two religious outfits and their sponsors, but it was certainly bewildering for others because this scenario arose after a long time. 

These groups surfaced on the electoral horizon with a bang. Discerning people know that these forces are absolutely unlikely to win even a single seat in any general elections but do hold the key to shave off votes of the PML-N in particular and the PTI in general because the religious minded electorates have mostly been preferring them, in the absence of the candidates of the religious factions. However, if such factions join hands to contest some seats, which is a remote possibility given their sectarian tilts, their votes put together may play a role in the defeat or victory of nominees of some key political parties.

The electoral weight and significance of the two new factors -- Tehreek Labbaik Ya Rasool Allah and MML introduced in this by-poll -- may have been blown up by certain people. No doubt, these religious forces have pockets in different federal and provincial constituencies but this is not the universal case all over Pakistan. There are a predominant number of areas where they will be unable to damage the vote-bank of any principal political party.

The humiliation and disgrace that the PPP and Jamaat-e-Islami suffered in this by-poll was obviously confined to just one high-profile seat, but if this persisted in other areas of at least Punjab, they are simply bound to become history in this province.

If one looks at their perennial boisterous nationwide campaign, their dismal demonstration leaves no doubt that nobody is buying their narrative. If only one rocking campaigner, always on the move come rain or shine, can be named from among  all the top national politicians, who is tireless and speaks at more than one function everyday throughout the length and breadth of Pakistan, he is the one and only Sirajul Haq. But the results of successive by-elections confirm that he has not only miserably failed to attract anyone but on the contrary his movement has generated monumental losses to whatever his party has earlier been getting in the polls.

In NA-120, the PPP contestant could manage just 1,414 votes while the Jamaat-e-Islami nominee could clinch only 592 ballots. This tally heralded the virtual demise of the two parties on the electoral front. However, their misfortune came more pronounced in this by-election as even their meagre number of votes they have pocketed in 2013 further dwindled. Last time, PPP cardholder Zubair Kardar had got 2,605 votes while Jamaat-e-Islami candidate Hafiz Salman Butt had bagged 953 votes. This time too, the independent election campaigns of the two parties were as powerful as they always had been, but they produced nothing, which means that they stand totally rejected by the electorate.

Only the big guns of these parties know where their voters have disappeared in Punjab. While Sirajul Haq’s public campaign is unending, Bilawal and Asif Ali Zardari have also held a multitude of political activities including public rallies in Punjab but it appears that nobody is listening to them.